Supply chain shortages

Don went to our local hardware store last week. While there, he fell into conversation with another customer who happened to be an electrical contractor. The contractor mentioned how he was unable to obtain the plastic switch, plug, and junction boxes that are essential to modern home wiring – and which, incidentally, are required by code.

This meant the contractor was delayed in fulfilling his own contractual obligations, which as you can imagine was as frustrating for him as it was for his customers. This is just one example of supply chain shortages that have been cropping up everywhere.

There's an organization called ISM^® (Institute for Supply Management) that has a fascinating report on what's going on at the ground level for the supply chain. (I am reprinting some of their data with written permission from their Research & Analytics Manager.)

In the category of "Electrical Equipment, Appliances, and Components" (meaning, for such items as the junction box shown above), respondents are desperate: "Things are now out of control. Everything is a mess, and we are seeing wide-scale shortages."

For the category of "Wood Products," respondents are saying, "Prices are rising so rapidly that many are wondering if [the situation] is sustainable. Shortages have the industry concerned for supply going forward, at least deep into the second quarter."

This February ISM^® report has many informative breakdowns in the supply chain. It has a long list of commodities going up in price (which includes, well, pretty much everything), commodities going down in price (which listed one item: dairy), and commodities in short supply: "Acetone; Aluminum; Computer Displays/Monitors; Corrugate; Corrugated Boxes; Electrical Components; Electronic Components; Freight – Ocean; Isocyanates; Methacrylate; Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) – Gloves); Plastic Products; Polypropylene; Propylene; Semiconductors; Steel; Steel – Cold Rolled; Steel – Hot Rolled (4); Steel – Specialty; and Steel Products."

A ZeroHedge piece entitled "There Is A Shortage Of Everything And Prices Are Soaring: What Happens Next" discusses many aspects of the supply chain and includes useful charts. Referencing one chart put out by Goldman Sachs, they state: "One striking feature of these reports is that supply chain disruptions are 'very widespread' and although the semiconductor shortage and its drag on auto production has garnered significant attention, Goldman economist Jan Hatzius notes that many other consumer goods – from headphones to sofas to roller skates – have also faced supply challenges this year."

They give two reasons for the disruptions:

• "First, manufacturers were caught off guard by a faster-than-anticipated recovery in demand and hadn’t ordered enough inputs in advance to meet production needs.
• Second, the increase in goods demand while transportation services are limited by the virus has led to an undersupply of shipping containers and congestion problems at West Coast ports, resulting in lengthy shipping delays."

Right now the semiconductor shortage is getting the most press – it impacts a tremendous number of industries – but make no mistake, lumber and junction boxes and steel are just as important. So, for that matter, are canning supplies.

Even more alarming, there appears to be a one-year delay on network router orders as the chip shortages worsen. This means internet service providers could be directly impacted. Think how much business is done via the internet, and you'll start to grasp the scope of the problem ... a problem that has been exacerbated by the millions of people now engaged in remote work.

Some think the supply chain is being manipulated to create artificial shortages. Others maintain it's just a natural fallout of pandemic closures, disruptions, and transportation issues. Most authorities believe it's a bottleneck situation that will ease with time.

But whatever the source or the reason, the effects are very real; so much so that Biden (a man without the slightest modicum of business experience) recently signed an executive order calling for a review of the global supply chain.

Here in our new home, we're in the planning (and in some cases, early construction) stages of a vast number of projects to turn this property into a self-sufficient homestead. We find ourselves having to get very creative when it comes to supplies and materials, and are in the process of scrounging or purchasing second-hand or "freecycling" various components. Clearly this is good for our budget and it encourages us to think outside the box; however it's also helpful that nothing we're building has to be up to "code."

We've been trying to purchase a unit of both OSB (oriented strand board) and 2x4 lumber, and – here's the thing – we can't. Our local hardware store simply cannot get lumber in any quantity. This morning Don was quoted a price of $60 for a single sheet of OSB. So, unless and until some creative alternatives come available, many of our projects will have to be put on hold.

So what I want to know is how all of you, dear readers, are dealing with supply chain issues. What shortages have you experienced? What work-arounds have you come up with? What creative alternatives have you tried? Your experiences will help everyone.

Canning supplies: Still a problem

Once in a while I dip into the issue of canning supply shortages, wondering what the status is. I've noticed there seems to be some canning jars in local grocery stores again, though lids still seem to be missing. But what's going on in the wider world?

So this morning I got onto the Lehman's website (which is kind of my "indicator" source) to see what's up. Looks like supplies are still sold out. Here's the announcement for regular-mouth canning jars:

Underneath the entry is the note: "Due to high demand, the vendor has been sending supply of styles that vary. We are sorry for the inconvenience, but we cannot guarantee a particular style."

Same thing for all jar sizes, such as wide-mouth quart.

Canning lids, of course, are completely gone. I've always kicked myself for not getting a few shipments of bulk lids when they were available. Despite mostly using Tattlers, I like having disposable lids as well.

Lehmans has been hammering at the doors of their suppliers, to no avail:

Reusable lids still seem to be in stock, which was nice to see (although the reviews indicate some people aren't familiar with how to use them).

Next, I checked pressure canners. As you might have guessed, none are available. Here's a mid-range All-American canner:

(A quick check on the All American Canner website confirms the lack of availability.)

I checked in with Glenda Lehman Ervin, VP of Marketing, to get her take on the situation. She wrote back and said:

"Yes, canning supplies are very difficult to get, as are certain Lodge cast iron products, wood cook stoves and Berkey water filters.

We do have stock of canned meat now, as well as Aladdin lamp oil and several key gardening products, which were back ordered.

Each week we get lots of product in, but it turns right around as we fill back orders and supply pent-up demand.

We ask customers to please be patient – we are working on increasing our communication on the status of back orders.  We do recommend placing an order to reserve your place in line!"

This is an immensely frustrating situation for retailers. Remember, they can't sell what they can't get.

What has been your experiences, dear readers? Do you have any suggestions for those looking for canning supplies?

A year of testing

What follows is a stream-of-consciousness blog post on the events of 2020/2021 and general preparedness. Forgive me if I lurch from topic to topic without much logical progression.

It was almost exactly one year ago that Older Daughter and I took a quick trip to Seattle so she could interview with a nanny agency.

We returned home optimistic about her job prospects. Naturally we had no idea – none whatever – of what lay in store for the rest of the year. First the pandemic hit, then the economy tanked, then Seattle disintegrated into a hot mess of anarchy, then riots broke out all across the country, then shortages of everything from toilet paper to canning supplies occurred, then ... then ... then ...

We – the Lewis family – also had a lot of changes during 2020, not least of which we moved away from our beloved home of 17 years and settled into a new and smaller place. Older Daughter peeled off and got an apartment on her own and is working two jobs. Younger Daughter deployed for six miserable months (no shore leave for any of the sailors) and is now land-based at her overseas duty station (until her next deployment, of course).

If the last year has done nothing else, it has tested a whole lot of people. That testing is still going on today, everything from the hundreds of thousands of small business either closed or struggling, to the current catastrophic situation in Texas (and to a lesser extent, Oregon).

As a result of the myriad issues America has faced in the last year, being prepared is more important than ever. I think we can all agree on that. What's questionable is whether it's possible, since so many people are struggling financially. (For those in compromised financial straits, Daisy Luther at The Organic Prepper and its sister site The Frugalite writes a lot about this issue. Her material is well worth reviewing.)

So when I saw an article this morning on Natural News entitled "Fifteen HARD lessons I learned from the 'Texageddon' blackouts and collapse of critical infrastructure," I read it with interest.

I often get impatient with Natural News because it tends toward the "We're all gonna die!" mindset, but this one was fairly good. The bulk of the advice is in the form of a podcast I didn't bother listening to, but here are the 15 points synopsized down. My comments are italicized and (in parentheses).

• Survival is very physical. Expect to exert a lot of physical effort. (Agreed. We had a massive windstorm and subsequent power outage back in 2015, and it was very hard work indeed to maintain livestock, water, etc.)

• Culture matters. Don't end up in a community without morals or ethics when it all hits the fan. (Easy to say, not necessarily easy to do. Not everyone can afford to move.)

• Convergence of two "black swan" disasters can wipe out your best plans, even if you have successfully prepped for any one (standalone) disaster. (Agreed. I've always maintained preparedness doesn't make you immune to disaster; it just gives you a fighting chance.)

• Some of your preps will FAIL. It's difficult to consider all possible scenarios, so count on failures striking without warning. (Agreed.Three is two, two is one, etc.)

• You need LAYERS of preparedness and "fall back" systems that are very low-tech and require nothing more than the laws of physics (gravity, chemistry, etc.). (That's why I've always preferred low-tech options for preparedness.)

• No one is coming to help you. In many situations, no one can get to you even if they wanted to.

• Containers (buckets, barrels) are extremely important. Have lots of pre-stored water and fuel at all times.

• Bitcoin and crypto were all completely valueless and useless during the collapse, since they all rely on electricity. Gold, silver and cash worked fine, on the other hand. (Yay, at last someone gets it! I've always thought tangible assets were the way to go. Personally I prefer the "stock" market such as cattle and chickens.)

• You will likely experience injuries or mishaps due to new, unusual demands on your work activities. Practice safety and be prepared to deal with injuries yourself.

• Having lots of spare parts for plumbing. Standardize your pipe sizes and accessories. I have standardized on 1″ PEX pipe and all its fittings because PEX is very easy to cut, shape and rework. Plus it's far more resistant to bursting, compared to PVC. (I take exception to this. We should all have "lots of spare parts" for plumbing? Really? Why not just have an extra house you can keep in your back pocket for any spare parts you need? What happened in Texas was unprecedented, and the whole plumbing issue is vastly more complicated than just what's under your sink. In other words, while spare plumbing parts are great, this is a "hindsight is 2020" recommendation that seems a little too pat and smacks of blaming the victim.)

• Investment in food is always a good investment, as prices will continue to climb. No one ever said during an emergency, "Gee, I wish I had less food here."

• You can't count on any government or institution or infrastructure to solve anything. Usually they just get in the way.

• You MUST have good lights and many backup batteries, or you will be sitting in the dark. You'll need a good headlamp (I use the PETZL Nao+) and some good 18650-battery flashlights such as Nitecore. (I'm also a big proponent of kerosene lamps.)

• Guns and bullets are not needed in some survival scenarios, so balance your prepping. Don't put all your money into ammo and fail to cover other important areas like emergency first aid. (Totally agree! There are too many "Rambo" preppers out there who think that because they have a bristling arsenal, that's all they need to be prepared. What are they going to do – shoot their way into a closed convenience store to steal what they need whenever the power goes out?)

• Think about what are stores of energy: Wood, diesel, gasoline, propane, water elevation, etc. Survival is a lot about energy management. (Agreed. To a minor extent, we're facing that now in our new home. We're still without the backups we need to stay comfortable during a grid-down situation.)

Anyway, that's about all the rambling musings I have at the moment. Sorry to sound so incoherent.

Meanwhile, if you're in Texas, Oregon, or any other location affected by the recent storms, please let us know how you're doing and how you're coping.

Ug. 2021

The events of the past week have been nutty and disturbing. Methinks this is just a foretaste of what 2021 will be like.

Garden seeds – in November?

Yesterday, an interesting post came across a regional preparedness website as follows: "Order garden seeds NOW. Today, I went to my favorite garden seed sites to find out that many are not printing catalogues this year AND they are out of some of my favorite varieties, forcing me to try different ones. If you have saved some seeds you are way ahead.  If not, a seed exchange may be considered in the early spring to share extras."

We've been so busy with our relocation that I haven't given any thought to gardens, much less seeds. Is this person correct? Is a seed shortage already in the works for 2021?

Curious, I did a little poking around online and came across a post called "Top 12 Garden Seed Catalogs 2020" which mentioned: "Update: Some companies, in order to save on waste and money, no longer print paper catalogs… Their catalogs are online only. While I do love curling up with a cup a tea and a stack of catalogs, consider doing the same with a tablet. I encourage companies to save all the trees they can, and besides… you get faster service with online ordering anyway!"

While this cheery note hardly bespeaks dire predictions, it is certainly a break with tradition for seed companies not to send those seductive and colorful paper catalogs in the mail each January.

I logged onto my favorite seed company's website, Victory Seeds, and all seems normal (or as normal as can be in 2020). They have catalogs available upon request. However ...

When I clicked on a random vegetable – corn – many many varieties are already sold out for 2020. Not everything, but a lot more than I expected.

Same with beans.

Other veggies (broccoli, carrots) seem well-stocked. Yet other veggies (peas, lettuce) have mixed results – some seeds are in stock, others are sold out.

Now granted, I haven't gone through every seed company or even every vegetable within a particular seed company. However certain news articles are confirming the trend of ordering early (here and here).

Remember, older seeds are still viable. They may not have as complete a germination rate as fresh seeds, but who cares?

So I think the person who posted that comment is correct. You may want to beat the rush and order garden seeds NOW for your 2021 garden. We don't know what next year will bring, and garden seeds are a relatively cheap investment.

Funny ... sorta

A friend sent this. Apparently this was photographed in England.

I thought it was funny.

Sorta.

Canning supply shortage?

While corresponding a couple days ago with Glenda Lehman Evrin, VP of Marketing at Lehman's, she mentioned something in passing that staggered me: "By the way, we just heard from Ball [the manufacturer] ... no canning jars until March of 2021!"

Almost immediately after that, I received a generic email from Tattler reusable canning lids (I'm on their email list) as follows: "Due to a nationwide canning supply shortage, we have been overwhelmed with orders. Everyone at Tattler is working diligently to get them out to each and every customer as quickly as possible. We know everyone wants to know the status of their order, but due to the overwhelming amount of emails it is prohibitive to respond. Thank you for understanding. We are sorry for the inconvenience."

I haven't had to buy canning supplies for years, so somehow I completely missed this devopment, but it seems there is a severe nationwide shortage of canning supplies.

A quick internet search confirmed it:

• Watch out, there's a canning lid shortage

• The latest COVID-19 shortage is canning lids

• Trouble in store as Covid canning craze leads to empty shelves and price gouging

• Shortages of canning supplies cause headaches for home gardeners

• Canning lids are in short supply

• If You’re Struggling to Find Canning Supplies Right Now, You're Not Alone

• Increase in canning during quarantine leads to supply shortage

• The Great Canning Lid Shortage of 1975, and a history of canning lids

As a passionate canner, how did I miss all this? I mean honestly, how?

Glenda added in a later email: "Ball said they have stopped accepting purchases orders until they get caught up and won’t ship anything until March of 2021. When I go to the grocery I am always surprised at what they are out of – one week it’s paper towels, the next week it is tomatoes, and the next week it is hamburger. Strange times."

So I looked around, and by golly everyone's right. Canning supplies are in short supply.

Here's the shelf at our local grocery store:

Then I went into the city (Coeur d'Alene) a couple days ago, first time since early August. Specifically I went to Walmart, where I haven't been in nearly a year, certainly since before the whole coronavirus was a thing. My goal was to find some moccasin slippers.

Well, it was a challenge.

This could be why: Made in China.

In fact, I saw a surprising number of understocked shelves at Walmart, in a variety of unrelated categories -- shoes, office supplies, and of course canning supplies.

(As an interesting aside, the young man -- and I mean young; he looked 18 or so -- operating the cash register was wearing a "thin blue line" face mask. I couldn't quite hear what customers were saying to him -- remember, we were all spaced six feet apart -- but it seemed he was getting many compliments. I know I gave him one.)

My next stop was Winco, which had utterly bare shelves where the canning supplies were supposed to be.

As I checked out at Winco, the polite checker asked me if I had found everything I was looking for. "Everything except canning supplies," I quipped. She laughed ruefully and shook her head.

What's your experience? What are you seeing? If you can't find canning supplies, how are you coping?

Logo of the Year

This made me laugh. It's being called the Logo of the Year.

Closed for business?

Here's a staggering headline: "Yelp reveals 60% of business closures are now permanent."

According to the article: "Yelp pointed out an increase of permanent business closures over the past six months, now reaching 97,966, or about 60% of closed businesses will never reopen their doors again.... Yelp notes restaurants, shopping and retail, and beauty and spas have been damaged the most with temporary and permanent closures since March 1. About 32,109 restaurants closed on Yelp, with 19,590 of those permanent, or about 61%. Shopping and retail saw 30,374 business closures, with 58% of those permanent. Beauty and spas saw 16,585 closures, with 42% of which are permanent. ... Los Angeles, New York City, and San Francisco were three metro areas that saw the most closures and permanent closures."

The article goes into all kinds of details about the fiscal impact, but one thing it doesn't cover is the emotional trauma of hard-working people whose dreams and aspirations have been wiped out.

Has your business closed? Has someone you know been forced out of business? What has been the reaction?

The year "annus horribilis"

So here we are, three-quarters of the way through the year annus horribilis. You might say 2020 has been a Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Year.

The one theme Don and I (along with many friends and neighbors) keep returning to is how fast things have unraveled. Last Christmas, as we celebrated with our family, not one of us had a clue what lay ahead. It's been wacky on every front.

Here are just some of the things that have happened in 2020:

• Pandemic
• Lockdowns
• School closures
• Small business closures by the hundreds of thousands
• Economic hardship for millions
• Panic prepping
• The rise of domestic terrorism
• Cities under siege
• Loss of law and order
• Mass exodus from urban areas
• Catastrophic wildfires
• Hurricanes
• Dericho winds destroying huge swaths of crops
• The rip-the-mask-off exposure of school indoctrination
• Blatant media bias
• Blatant Big Tech censorship
• Elections (arguably this factor underlays much of the above list)

Have I missed anything? I'm sure I have. Some of these things have been going on for a long, long time and only became obvious at last; others are unprecedented. But it all rolls into one big ball of, well, 2020.

There's an old Chinese curse that says "May you live in interesting times." Well, guess what. We're living in interesting times.

And it all happened so fast. So fast.

Nor it is over. Whatever happens in November, we're in for a long, hard, ugly civil war (definitely figuratively; hopefully not literally).

Hunker down, folks. It's all we can do.

Lessons from the Pandemic

Dear readers, I would like your input.

Don and I were asked to jointly write an article for Backwoods Home Magazine on "Lessons from the Pandemic" – what we did right and what we did wrong. By "we," it doesn't necessarily refer to "us" specifically, but what people in general feel they did right and wrong. This article is for inclusion in BWH's Emergency Preparedness and Survival Guide.

Since we feel we're weathering the pandemic quite well due to a number of pre-existing factors (rural lifestyle, low debt, multiple income streams, abundant supplies, etc.), we are looking for input from readers on what they feel they did wrong.

This article is not meant to be political, so please refrain from speculating about whether it was a "plandemic" or any government repercussions from the last few months. Instead, frame your replies in terms of what they're looking for – maybe some things that you did right, but especially those things that you wished you had done, or done differently (prepper-wise), prior to COVID's arrival and the lock-downs.

Okay, folks, let's hear 'em!

Shopping trip

I took a shopping trip into the city last Monday. I was kinda on autopilot (I hate shopping), following the list in my hand without much thought as I made stops at my three usual places: Costco, Cash'n'Carry (now called Smart Food Service), and Winco.

At Costco, they had toilet paper (but not the Kirkland brand, my preferred choice). Also, I wanted to pick up two jugs of laundry detergent, but was limited to one. (Why, I don't know.) Needless to say, anti-bacterial wet wipes were out of the question.

It wasn't until I was at Cash'n'Carry (a wholesale restaurant-supply store), trying to find a jug of dish soap, that I snapped out of autopilot and realized there were a lot of empty shelves. A lot. Here are the big gaping holes where the dish soap normally is:

I also couldn't find a bulk bag of red lentils. After seeking the assistance of a store clerk -- and after he pointed out the empty shelf where the lentils would normally be -- I inquired why the store was so bare. "Well, we're expecting a shipment in tomorrow," he explained, then added, "but we're not getting everything we order."

This was confirmed by a different clerk, explaining to another customer that they're "lucky" to get in 75 percent of what they order.

So I went back through the store and photographed some of what I saw (or rather, didn't see). Sorry for the blurry photos, I was trying not to be too obvious with the camera.

Then I moved on to Winco, where most of my purchases were in the (fully stocked) bulk section. But, curious, I wandered by the meat department and saw this:

So there you go. That was my monthly shopping trip.