Got eggs?

Last week, I read an article that an egg-production facility in Cokato, Minnesota, went up in flames. The facility produces upwards of six million eggs a day. Tragically, tens of thousands of hens died.

This fire is yet another nail in the coffin of egg availability. Bird flu panic has caused millions upon millions of chickens to be culled, creating shortages and price increases like crazy.

Additionally, the state of Georgia has halted all poultry-related activities due to bird flu concerns. This means all "in-state poultry exhibitions, shows, swaps, meets, and sales are suspended until further notice," with a corresponding massive ripple effect over multiple industries.

Now the prognosis is that egg prices will stay elevated forever. Seems a little pessimistic, but there you go.

The shortages (and elevated prices) have hit locally as well. A couple weeks ago while in our local grocery store, I saw this:

The less expensive eggs were cleaned out, while the pricier ones remained.

We seldom buy eggs, since we keep them on hand mostly for baking. But for those who depend on eggs for an inexpensive source of protein, these prices and shortages must be hitting hard.

We're hoping to get a coop built and start a flock of chickens this summer. In the meantime, when we need eggs, I'm grateful we can buy them from the nice older couple down the road who usually charges $3.50 a dozen.

Shortages? Why?

I have a friend in Maine. Last week she emailed and said, "I am noticing in past few weeks big gaps on shelves in the grocery store in next town. In two areas today, all the shelves – top, middle and bottom, for 1/4 length of the aisle – were completely empty! To be honest I don't know what was there, but it's not there now. And the prices!!!!!!! Eggs are $4.59, a can of Spam is $4.39. I got a bag of Tostidos corn chips as I am making chili, $4.49! Generics or store brands are also disappearing. I wonder what is going on?"

I asked her to send me photos next time she was in town, and she sent the following pictures, along with a note saying, "Here are the empty shelves in grocery store I was telling you about. They are not even spacing stuff far apart like when the COVID shortages were occurring. The hardware and auto parts stores look the same way. All we hear is it's because of supply-chain issues. I thought we worked all through that mess already!"

In our local community, we haven't noticed much by way of shortages. I took a rare trip to the city a couple weeks ago and everything seemed fine. It makes me wonder if the shortages my friend is seeing are a regional thing ... or if I'm not seeing shortages because the stores are doing a better job of hiding it.

What is everyone else seeing?

Shopping, ug

Last week, I did something I've been trying to do as infrequently as possible: I went into the city for some shopping.

I go as infrequently as possible for several reasons: (1) I hate shopping; (2) it's a long ways away; (3) it's increasingly expensive.

It's the expensive part I'd like to discuss today, because last week's shopping expedition was eye-opening.

When I go to the city, I go almost exclusively to hit the big box stores, and I tend to buy the same thing every time (toilet paper, cheese, etc.). The stores I go to most frequently are Winco, Costco, and Chef's Store (formerly Cash'n'Carry, a wholesale restaurant-supply store). And here's the interesting thing: I've been saving the receipts. These receipts give a snapshot of price increases over the last couple of years.

Let's start with toilet paper. We always buy Costco's Kirkland brand. On Oct. 26, 2021, a bundle cost $16.99.

On Jan. 11, 2022, the price had increased to $17.99.

On Aug. 30, 2022, the price was $18.99.

Last week, the price was up to $19.99.

We also enjoy Costco-brand pesto. In March of 2022, the price was $9.49.

The price had risen to  $9.99 by August 20, 2022:

Last week, the same product was $11.99.

How about dog food? We purchase a brand called Nutra Nuggets. On Jan. 11, 2022, the price was $26.99:

On March 9, 2022, the price was $29.99:

Last week, the price was $35.69:

My favorite vegetable is broccoli. For years I've purchased three-pound bags of broccoli florets from either Costco or (preferably) Chef's Store. Last week I went into Chef's Store and gaped at the empty vegetable cooler.

The potato and onion section was also sparse.

When I inquired of an employee about the status of vegetables in general and broccoli in particular, she shook her head. "We haven't been able to get much by way of produce," she said.

This is a store, you understand, that caters to restaurants. When I remarked that it must be causing great hardship to restaurants, she nodded in vigorous agreement. "We're getting about half of what we order," she said. "But with produce, we're getting even less of that."

So, unable to find broccoli at Chef's Store, I tried Costco. Last March, I got my usual three-pound bag for $5.99:

Last week, the only – the only! – broccoli they had in stock was a two-pound bag of organic for $5.99:

This isn't exactly comparing apples to apples, since organic tends to cost more anyway. But the fact that broccoli was scarce or absent from both Costco and Chef's Store was telling.

At Chef's Store, I had mayonnaise on my list. Normally I purchase this in gallon jugs (Don's a sandwich guy, so we go through a fair bit of mayo; plus we repurpose the empty mayo jugs for endless uses). I hadn't bought mayo in a long time, so I don't have paper proof of the earlier cost, but one thing is certain: It sure as heck wasn't $25.35 a gallon. 

After sputtering in shock for a moment, I purchased a gallon of the house-brand mayo for $15.55, which is far closer to the price I had previously paid for Kraft. (I'm not married to Kraft as a brand, you understand; what I'm married to is the wonderful jug with a handle. We reuse these jugs constantly.)

Olive oil was up. In January of 2022, it was $18.99 for a gallon. Last week it was $21.65.

Cheese was up. In March of 2022, it was $16.29 for a five-pound block. Last week it was $18.60.

Dog biscuits were up. In October of 2021, a 20-lb. box from Winco was $22.38. Last week, the same was $26.18.

Then I took myself to Walmart. I seldom shop at Walmart, even on my rare city excursions, but this time I had a mishmash of odd things I was looking for. Interestingly, one of those oddball things was a product called Covermate, which is like a plastic shower cap for food bowls.

We wash and reuse these for years, but eventually they give out. The only place I've ever found them is Walmart, so that was on my list.

I walked into the plastic-wrap aisle of Walmart and stopped short. What was up with this?

Is there a shortage of plastic wrap and bags and food coverings I'm unaware of? (I ended up ordering a few bags of Covermates online.)

Another item I wanted was the Walmart-brand of Loratadine (both Don and Older Daughter have allergies). They had plenty in stock, but I did notice the shortages of cold medicines for both children and adults. That is a shortage I've been hearing about.

I was so glad to put the city behind me and flee back home, let me tell you. It always takes me a day or two to recover from such excursions.

So what are you seeing as far as prices and availability goes? Have you noticed shortages? Let us know.

Planning ahead

Last October, I took a fast trip to the city with one express purpose: To purchase six rolls of field fence. (It was significantly cheaper to take this long trip than it was to purchase the fencing locally. We looked.)

We already had four 330-foot rolls we had purchased in December of 2020; but in the ten months between one purchase and the next, the price of each roll doubled. Read that again: the price doubled. Understand that at the time we purchased this fencing, we knew we were at least a year out from getting cows. But we also knew (a) we would need this fencing when the time came; and (b) it sure as heck wasn't getting any cheaper.

Over and over and OVER again, we find ourselves doing this: Purchasing materials needed for future homesteading projects in an effort to beat inflation and supply-chain disruptions. Lumber. Fasteners (nuts, bolts, screws, etc.). Deer netting. Gravel. Cattle panels (sometimes called hog panels). Bulk diesel.

Last week Don made another such purchase: Drip irrigation supplies. We used drip irrigation in the garden in our last home with great success. Not only does it save water, it also saves labor. We knew we wanted to duplicate this system in our own future garden.

Before ordering, Don confirmed with the company that the supplies were available and could be shipped immediately. Then he sat down, mapped out our proposed garden areas, and calculated what drip irrigation components we needed. Then he ordered.

The order came in this week, and I can't tell you how happy I am to see it!

(Side note: Some women get all gushy over clothes or jewelry. I get all gushy over lumber and drip irrigation supplies.)

It strikes me that a lot of people are engaged in similar behaviors – planning for future projects and purchasing needed supplies now, before prices go up further.

What are you purchasing ahead?

Supply-chain update

Recently, I asked my contact at Lehman's the following: "When you have a moment, I'd love to hear your take on supply-chain issues and what kinds of products are in short supply."

Glenda Lehman Ervin is the Director of Marketing for Lehman's, and she wrote the following:

"I talked to merchandising and they said vendors are ramping up production and demand is softening slightly, so supply chain issues are still there but are loosening up. The biggest issue we have is with the Pioneer Princess wood cook stoves – we are still taking (and getting) orders, but we are at least a year out in filling those orders."

"We have a new canning lid supplier (Superb – made locally just a few miles from the store), which is helping with the canning lid back orders. Customers tell us they really like the lids, which are thicker and work well for high pressure canning."

"Lodge has made investments into production and plans to add back the SKUs that were discontinued (so they could focus on the most popular SKUs during the height of big demand). We do see spikes in back orders for seasonal items (for example, outdoor games and seeds when summer hit) but for the most part, we are keeping up."

So there you go, folks. The latest from a large retailer whose products are in high demand.

Backed-up contractors

Don is involved in a local organization which, among much else, needs to get an older historical building rewired. It's a big job, something on the order of $15-20,000. Don took on the task of getting quotes from electricians, after which the organization would decide which contractor to use for the project.

Well my goodness, this has turned into a months-long ordeal. Of the seven electrical contractors he contacted, only three returned his calls. Of those three, only two gave him quotes. Now that the decision is made as to which contractor to use, it's a matter of scheduling.

This week Don called the contractor to see when he might be able to start work on the project. The contractor told him he has numerous other projects scheduled already, so he's going to split the rewiring project for the older building into three parts and shoehorn the work in between his other projects.

Interestingly, rather than accept any money up front to seal the deal (which is normal), the electrician said he would bill the organization. Why? Because prices keep going up for the supplies the electrician needs (junction boxes, wiring, switches, etc.) to do the job according to code.

Similarly, we had a plumbing emergency that arose a couple months ago. Don called around to plumbing services, but every last one said it would be three months before they could come take a look – and this was for a plumbing emergency! Fortunately we were able to get the issue resolved, and it's a good thing, too. Three months?

Ditto with concrete. The electrician told Don he knows a number of concrete guys who said they're already three months out for new projects, and it's barely April. Oh and big surprise, the cost of concrete is rising.

We have several neighbors either actively trying to build homes, bring in manufactured homes, or otherwise get housing established. The trouble is, everyone and everything is so backed up – and prices keep rising, and supply-chain issues keep cropping up – that people are living in trailers or alternate quarters for the foreseeable future (months or even years) before they can anticipate housing to be built. Additionally, the original budget these neighbors might have had for building is now out of date because of skyrocketing costs of lumber, roofing materials, drywall, insulation, labor, and every other component that makes up a home.

This is the new reality, apparently. For those looking to relocate, this is a critical point to factor in.

Canning lid extravaganza

I had to go into the city this week for errands (long story short, I went to ship some tankards out via FedEx Ground – rural pickup isn't always dependable).  Since I was in town, I ran a few errands. One such errands took me to North 40 Outfitters.

I walked in the front doors of the store and came face-to-face with an enormous display of canning supplies – stacks of jars and pallets of lids. Jars have been commonly available for a while – but lids? Not so much. And here was a veritable mountain of them. (And can you believe I didn't take a photo?)

Unable to resist the temptation, I purchased four boxes of wide-mouth lids and six boxes of regular-mouth lids.

They weren't cheap, but then nothing is these days. But they were abundant, and that by itself was a novelty.

I asked the checkout lady how long they've had those lids in stock, and she said they've had them for months, but mostly tucked back in the gardening section. Only recently did they create the display near the front of the store.

Folks, if you're in need of canning lids and are anywhere near a North 40, it might be worth checking them out.

Will chicken skyrocket?

In mid-January, I took a trip to the city to stock up on some items. One of my favorite places to shop is Chef's Store (formerly Cash'n'Carry), a restaurant supply store which is excellent for purchasing bulk quantities of things.

While there, I asked about the availability of a 40-lb. box of frozen boneless skinless chicken breasts, since I had it in mind to can up some additional chicken. The fellow shook his head and said they have it in stock, but I wouldn't like the price.

"How much?" I asked.

"$110," he replied, himself scandalized. "It dropped to $80 for a while, then went up to $110."

That's $2.75 per pound, bulk. I decided not to get the chicken breasts.

However today, I noticed an article entitled "Bird flu detected in Michigan flock, federal authorities say." The article reported, "The virus strain is potentially deadly to commercial poultry. The bird flu cases are among the latest in the U.S. that have put farms that raise turkeys and chickens for meat and eggs on high alert, fearing a repeat of a 2015 bird flu outbreak that killed 50 million birds across 15 states and cost the federal government nearly $1 billion."

Now I wished I'd bought that case of chicken breasts back in mid-January.

So this morning I called Chef's Store and inquired if they had cases of chicken breasts in stock – they did – and what was the price?

$135 for a 40-lb. box. That's $3.37/pound. Now I really wished I'd bought that case of chicken breasts a month ago.

Don and I talked it over and decided we would not purchase the chicken. I still have some canned up in the pantry.

However the fact that bulk chicken breasts leaped from $2.75/lb to $3.37/lb over the course of five weeks – a 22.5% increase – is disturbing. Now if the bird flu takes off, that could ratchet prices up even higher.

If anyone's in the market for chicken to can or freeze, I wouldn't waste any time.

(Addendum: Due to a Google glitch, I can't reply to comments. Someone asked what I do with canned chicken. Usually I make chicken pot pies with it, but of course it's excellent for soups, stews, or anything else where shredded chicken is an ingredient.)

More on supply-chain issues

In reference to my last post on a trip to the city, a long-time reader sent an email detailing her recent shopping experience. She lives in the Silicon Valley area of California, and helps care for her elderly in-laws. Her email is posted with permission.

________________________________

I went grocery shopping for two households today. I'm terrible at taking photos, so I didn't take any.

I went to three stores and there was no broccoli in the produce department in any of them, except the pre-washed packaged florets. There was plenty of celery in the first store; it was in its own place AND in the place for the broccoli. Most of the other produce was either very low stock or missing entirely.

There were huge gaps in stocking all over the stores. The packaged meat and poultry refrigerator units were very sparsely populated, and there wasn't much more in the butcher departments. Dairy had big gaps, and the egg refrigerator units had very little in them. There were only two packages of toilet paper, the four-roll ones, at the first store. There are signs about supply chain issues in the pet supply aisle at the first store, mostly related to the kibble types.

The third store was necessary because Mom asked for bacon and hot dogs. That store was the only one that had them and the stock was definitely low. The aisles that seemed to have the most stock were the sugar cereal, junk food, soda, and liquor.  Oh, and store-brand baked goods. That was at Safeway. Of the other two stores, one had plenty of junk food, the other had plenty of liquor (they have an exceptional wine and beer section). One of my friends is making a trip to the local Costco soon. I'll ask her for a report.

I have noticed over the last few months that the butcher departments at all these stores are shrinking, and the produce departments suddenly have lots of room to move around. The stores appear to be trying to hide the problem with rearranging and removing gondolas/bins/etc., and fronting all the stock regularly. Questions about product availability are met with a blank look and mumbled answers about deliveries. Some customers are starting to get a bit vocal about their displeasure. Prices are going up by leaps and bounds, but most people appear to be more concerned about availability than price (a Silicon Valley thing?).

Mom said that my normally clueless sister-in-law has actually noticed and is quite frightened.

We're definitely living in "interesting times"! God is sovereign, however.

Trip to the city

I did something yesterday I haven't done in three months: I took a shopping trip to the city. Seriously, I haven't been there since October 11.

I concentrated on the big box stores, since that's the only reason to go into a city anymore. My stops were: Staples, Home Depot, JoAnn's Fabrics, Cash'n'Carry (now called Chef's Store), Costco, and Winco. Aside from our purchases, however, I also wanted to gauge how full the shelves are since I keep hearing dire news stories about supply-chain shortages.

I had very little to get at Staples and Home Depot (a floor mat for under my desk and another step stool, respectively). I also had just one purchase at JoAnn's: some gnarly elastic to use as earthquake strapping for our spice rack in the pantry. While the lady at JoAnn's was measuring out the elastic, I asked if they were having trouble getting things. She gave a rueful chuckle and gestured toward an enormous wheeled cart stuffed with, I'm guessing, 200 bolts of fabric (including Christmas-themed prints).

"See that?" she said. "That was supposed to arrive two months ago. We just got it yesterday."

"Stuck offshore, was it?" I asked, and she said it was.

Chef's Store is probably my favorite place to shop. It's a restaurant-supply store and simply the best place to purchase bulk bags of flour or beans. I did not see many obvious holes in their inventory, with very select exceptions.

They even had plenty of frozen potatoes. We don't buy these, but I'd heard they're in short supply for many restaurants.

I noticed a few holes in the meats, but honestly not many.

I did ask about the availability of a 40-lb. box of frozen boneless skinless chicken breasts, since I had it in mind to can up some additional chicken. The fellow shook his head and said they have it in stock, but I wouldn't like the price.

"How much?" I asked.

"$110," he replied, himself scandalized. "It dropped to $80 for a while, then went up to $110."

Granted the last time I bought a 40-lb. box of chicken breasts was nine years ago, and it was on sale for $60. Nonetheless, I didn't buy any.

While checking out, I asked about their supply chain. Two of the men operating the cash registers joined in. "Horrible," they said. Apparently they're only getting in fifty percent of what they order. For this reason, I was pleased to get nearly everything I was looking for.

Costco, my next stop, was another story. The shelves all seemed full, including produce and meat, but something seemed amiss. I finally realized what it was while picking up some dog food: all the upper tiers of massive shelving were bare. And I mean bare.

I asked a passing Costco employee what was up with that. Apparently the reason was Snoqualmie Pass – the main east-west thoroughfare between Washington and North Idaho – had been snowed shut for several days, and had only just reopened. It wasn't just Snoqualmie Pass, it was every other east-west pass that had been closed due to weather, and Idaho was feeling the effect. I happened to hit Costco just as they were beginning to restock.

Interestingly, there were hardly any people in Costco. I've been there at times when it's wildly crowded. This was the opposite, even though it was mid-day on a Tuesday in decent weather. Go figure.

(Oh, and no restrictions of purchases of toilet paper. I snagged two packs.)

My last stop was Winco, which unquestionably has the best bulk-food section of any store I've seen. I was able to pick up some bulk pasta, farina (Cream of Wheat), coffee (still attractively priced), powdered milk, and red lentils.

What I couldn't find, however, was generic (Western Family brand) saltine crackers. Chef's Store didn't have any either, nor did our local grocery store.

They had Nabisco Premiums (notice how they're stacked forward to disguise the bare shelves behind), but those cost literally three times the price of the generic, and I wasn't about to pay that much. They also had plenty of generic saltines with unsalted tops, which were clearly an unpopular option. So, I didn't buy any crackers. I think I'll make them instead.

The other thing I couldn't find were strike-anywhere matches. What's up with that? For weeks we've been looking for strike-anywhere matches. Every time we go into a local grocery or hardware store, we search the shelves for strike-anywheres, and they're sold out. Winco had plenty of strike-on-box matches, but those aren't our preference.

I didn't specifically mention matches, but I did ask the checkout lady about supply chain issues in general. She made the same observations as everyone else I spoke to: aside from the passes being closed, the store is getting anywhere from half to three-quarters of what they order. In light of this, I was pleased to see the shelves seemed full (though granted I didn't hit many of the center aisles, since I tend to be a perimeter shopper).

So that was my trip to the city. What's happening in the rest of the country?