(But were sorry you asked.)
Just before Christmas, I did a "guest" piece here at Rural Revolution called
"A Sermon." I got a lot of great feed-back on it. Most folks seemed to agree with my belief that we have already gone past the tipping point here in the U.S. (and by default, in the rest of the world too).
One of the comments on the piece was written by "Anonymous Patriot," one of our regular readers, frequent commentators, and part of the RR family. She asked me for some amplification on my thoughts on what's coming. I waited a while before addressing her questions, mainly so I could figure out just what I really thought about them.
Let's do the disclaimer thing first. One, I'm the last guy in the world to ask for advice or prognostication. Once, as a kid in the more "relevant" public educational system of the 70's, my whole class was given an ESP test. Lots of cards were held up by the teacher facing away from us and we had to guess what she was looking at; wavy lines, stars, circles, etc. This was a full blown test, three sets of cards, our answers marked on test cards. I don't place a lot of truck with such things, but I'll tell you one thing. I scored lowest on the test. Not just lowest, but statistically way below even just chance. Apparently I am blessed with a powerful anti-ESP.
But fortunately I don't need to use eldric mind powers or "The Force" to be able to read the writing on the wall. I spend a fair amount of my on-line reading at sites with bonafide economic experts. While I don't always get all the acronyms, I do okay on the graphs and pie charts. And I'm a full believer in simplicity. Finance and economics is really very easy to understand once you strip away the manure that all professionals add to justify larger salaries. I know all about this, I was once a geotechnical engineer and engineering geologist. We would never use a fifty cent word when a twenty dollar word would do.
So to start here are some simple economic truths:
1) You can not forever spend more than you are capable of generating.
2) Currency (paper money and conveyances such as stocks, bonds, notes, etc.) are only commonly shared fantasies. They only work so long as people believe they represent real value.
3) Ponzi schemes will always fail in the end. And it doesn't matter if they are being run by a con man or a government.
So now to AP's questions.
1) Do you have any specific ideas about what we can expect? For example, hyperinflation leading to riots or perhaps union strikes which lead to food and gasoline shortages.
2) Do you envision widespread violence or peaceful protests or neither? How do you think the majority of the people will react to a sustained shortage of gasoline, for example?
3) When do you think a definitive and eye-opening SHTF scenario will unfold? Has it already begun (and most people missed it)? Will it happen in 2011 or 2012 or later?
4) If the government were to collapse, what would you suggest to take its place? Would you return to the Constitution or scrap it and start anew?
Given that economics can put even those with tooth picks jammed under their eyelids to sleep, I'll answer only the hyperinflation question today. Trust me, it will be too much even at that.
But first I have to define a few terms in my own long-winded style.
Right now the big argument amongst the SHTF financial gurus is the deflation/inflation debate. Both sides have respected experts with lots of acronyms after their names, essentially calling the other side a bunch of blithering idiots. My acronym supply is considerably more modest than theirs, but I have one thing they currently don't have: a PhD in poverty. So I make my predictions not on the basis of REMIC's, LTV's, CPI's or GDP's. I use YWHM. (“You want how much??!!”)
Deflation
Deflation essentially means that no one is spending any money. Consequently prices are forced down because it's better to sell something cheap and pay the bills rather than have it sit on the shelf. The big worry with deflation is that once you (and the million other you's) sell your product for less than you hoped to make, then you too will be reluctant to part with your diminished cash, forcing more deflation.
Inflation
Inflation means the prices on things go up. The money you have doesn't go as far. It's harder to pay the bills, buy the food and purchase the gas you need to get to work. The real mechanism here isn't that things have gone up in value; it's that the value of your currency has gone down. How does that happen? Someone (legally this would have to be a government, otherwise it's a crime [irony alert]) decides that there just isn't enough money out there so they print and distribute a lot more money. But here's the important part: that money is not attached to a real or existing value. It's created just by turning the proverbial crank on the printing press. But why does a government do this? Oh I don't know....suppose it decides that it simply MUST spend more than it takes in.
Whew!! That was starting to get to the point where I could charge big bucks for it. So let's cut to kitchen counter economics. The eggheads who argue deflation-inflation don't seem to see a simple reality. In times of monetization , inflation is what you get for the things you have to have. Deflation occurs for those things you might want, but can do without.
Examples?
Housing right now is deflationary. "But Don," you say, "Everyone needs housing." True. Except for one thing. Everyone HAS housing. With the exception of the relatively few truly "homeless," everyone on this snowy night is indoors, even those who've lost their homes to foreclosure and have had to move back in with Mom and Dad. Go out shopping and look at all the items for sale. Automobiles are selling cheaper right now. You can get a great deal on a room in Vegas. The latest whiz-bang electronics are going down in price. Why? Well if you might lose your job tomorrow you'll probably decide to hold off buying the latest big screen/computer/cell phone. But the folks who make or provide these things have to eat too. So down goes the price even at the expense of profit.
Now head off to the grocery store. But first fill your tank with fuel. Don't forget your doctor appointment to check that suspicious lump. Prices up? There's the inflation. You’ve got to eat. You’ve got to drive. You’ve got to take care of yourself. To be fair, Inflation hit those manufacturers of the big screen TV and the pet rocks too. But they are in a bind. They have to lower their price or you won't buy. You don't NEED what they’ve got.
Hyperinflation
Hyperinflation is a whole different category of fish. You'd think that hyperinflation is just inflation on steroids. And they do appear to operate on the same basic principles: too much money chasing too few things. But that isn't really the story on hyperinflation. Hyperinflation is actually a mental condition rather than a financial problem. Remember rule Number (2) above? Money is only a shared fantasy. So long as we all agree that a small piece of linen with the face of a dead president on it actually represents a value, then money works much better than hauling a side of beef around to trade for a new MP3 player. But if that fantasy is damaged or destroyed, then the natural inclination is to get rid of those miniscule engraved portraits as quickly as possible. This fantasy is hard to shake. After all, we've lived with it all of our lives. So how does this failure of shared belief occur? Well there can be a number of flash points. And none of them are a sure trigger for hyperinflation. Hyperinflation may happen as a result of wars, political or social upheavals, aggressive monetization (meaning too much money being created without any underlying value) or ...a sudden loss of confidence in government securities backed by nothing. (Any of these sound familiar?)
No matter what the flash point, what it means is a sudden and massive desire on the parts of financial institutions (and later the public) to get rid of money and buy essentials (i.e commodities: food, fuel, etc.)
An example?
Suppose that a few large banks suddenly get the silly notion that all of those U.S. treasury bonds they were forced to buy by the Fed in exchange for a bailout are actually not worth much. Maybe this occurs because nobody comes out to play at a treasury auction. So the banks begin to sell their stockpiled treasuries off...hard. The money they get will be shoveled into commodities because by that point there's nowhere else for it to go. The Federal Reserve is forced to buy those treasuries back to keep them from crashing. They will do that by creating even more money to pay for the treasuries. So let's see. We have massive buying of commodities (food, fuel, metals) creating rising prices because of demand. And lots of paper money going down in value rapidly in relationship to the hard assets. About this time, those of us who weren't already leery of cash (and that's most of us) are going to realize that we'd better get rid of our cash quickly for the same reasons. So...the minute you get your paycheck, it's off to the store or the gas station. The owners of those businesses need to move that cash fast as well because the commodities they sell are going up in cost as well. And so on. Hyperinflation quickly becomes self-perpetuating.
Whew! Sorry it took so long to get to this point. What was the question again?
Oh right. The answer is: Yes.
I anticipate hyperinflation. When? I don't know. Why? Because we are insanely continuing our currency devaluation policies. Hyperinflation is like a forest fire. And right now the economic woods are dry. The air is hot. The breeze is strong. All it wants is a spark. Will the unions riot? Sure they will. They are already doing so. All over the world. So will everyone else.
Fuel shortages - yes.
Food shortages – yes.
Next time I'll take on question number 2. One good thing though. Pretty sure it won't require any toothpicks.
- Don Lewis