Sunday, May 3, 2020

Never believe the weather predictions

So yesterday (Saturday), ominous weather predictions started surfacing for our region:
Saturday has the potential to be an active thunderstorm day. Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible after 1PM. Some of these storms could produce large hail and strong wind gusts. A second line of strong thunderstorms will be possible between 5PM and 9 PM. Wind gusts between 40 and 60 mph, brief downpours, and small hail will be possible with this second line of storms. Areas of blowing dust will be possible near recently worked fields which could reduce visibility in some areas.
We decided it would be prudent to spend the day battening down hatches. We picked up tools left lying around, secured loose objects, and even parked the car and log splitter under the livestock awning (in case of heavy hail).

The day started out sunny and warm, with the daffodils in full bloom.

Our young orchard trees are just starting to bloom, too, and I was hoping the weather wouldn't be so severe as to strip the blossoms, which would mean less fruit.

Once the battening down was done, I took advantage of the balmy conditions to get a lot of work done in the garden, prepping the beds for planting. I kept an eye on the sky, which gradually grew more ominous.

We had a little bit of rain and a little bit of wind -- enough to kick up dust on the road and drive me in from the garden -- and that was it.

The sky cleared and the sun came out. Then the cycle started again, with ominous clouds gathering.

A little bit of wind, a little bit of rain...

...but the majority of the cell skirted to the east of us. Here the evening sun shines on trees with a dark thunderstorm as a backdrop.

As it turned out, the majority of the weather moved through during the night, though we never got any hail, thunder, or lightning. But it rained enough to leave puddles.

While we're joking we should never believe the weather predictions, of course the one time we didn't heed the warnings would be the one time all chaos would break loose, right?. So -- we'll keep listening to the weather predictors and acting accordingly.

It must be spring.


  1. Here in N Texas we have had 3 really bad storms go through. There were even tornadoes in two of them. They all split and went around us and we only got 1/2" of rain out of all of them. We have had enough rain for spring so I am happy we missed all of the excitement!

  2. Patrice, this happens here as well. I have lost count of the number of thunderstorm and rain predictions that turn out to be nothing. Oddly enough, they almost never mis-call the heat though.

  3. Must have skirted your area, but hit us just north of you, heavy rain and lots thunder and clapping, even the chickens went in a bit early and looked cautious, trees were bending and I feared that one of them would break and land on the house. Thankfully nothing that bad happened and we ended up with a lot of rain. Whew!

  4. I consider having the snowblower on the big tractor as 'snow repellent'. It seems to work more often than not. Now we could use a bit of moisture - and we may get some. Seeing that we kind of 'need' it, I am thinking not. Natokadn

    1. A whopping 0.14". I think areas north and south of us (and not very far) are getting 1/2" or more. At least we got that much!

  5. I went out for a hike today, east of Avery. Beautiful mountain scenery. The rain kept turning on and off as if some toddler had their hand on the switch and kept flipping it back and forth. Still able to enjoy the day. Just wish my family was up here already.

  6. I take all weather predictions, especially those labeled 'possible', seriously. Better prepared than not. Actually, we've found that the 'possible' is more often than not what actually happens.

  7. Weather models use airplane data. Fewer airplanes flying has meant the accuracy of the weather models has deteriorated in the last couple months.